Resilience alone will not spur long-term growth, the Canadian Chamber of Commerce’s Business Data Lab has revealed in its “Business Insights Quarterly” report for the first quarter of 2026.
Trade has been identified as a significant factor. While Canada’s economy has held in the face of tariffs and other disruptions, even ticking up slightly, the report found that businesses played it safe when dealing with trade-related shifts.
“Canada’s economy is proving resilient, but resilience alone won’t drive long-term growth. We’re seeing an economy that is holding steady on the surface, but when you look deeper, businesses are adapting cautiously — and often defensively — to a more uncertain environment. The focus right now is on managing risk rather than expanding, and it’s holding back momentum,” said Patrick Gill, BDL vice president, in a statement.
The report noted that demand is flagging and that consumers are spending carefully. Rather than entering new markets or supply chains, businesses are increasing prices and delaying decisions. Export growth beyond the US is driven by organizations that were already exporting instead of by new businesses expanding globally.
While business closures are steadying, fewer new businesses are launching and scaling. This hampers the pipeline for future growth. Moreover, hiring is sluggish even though workers are available and job vacancies are being filled; organizations are training current employees to address skill gaps instead of bringing on new talent.
The BDL noted that business outlook has fallen below neutral for seven consecutive quarters. Confidence remains down, particularly among exporters. Moreover, small and mid-sized businesses continue to be restricted even as large firms grow.
“Without stronger conditions for businesses to invest, grow and reach new markets, the risk isn’t a sharp downturn; it’s the slow erosion effect. Turning that around means creating the right environment for businesses — especially small and mid-sized firms — to scale, compete and move forward with confidence,” Gill said.