Long-term small business optimism rising steadily in last three months: business group survey

Canadian Federation of Independent Business data shows low consumer demand in tourism sector
Long-term small business optimism rising steadily in last three months: business group survey

Among small businesses surveyed, 21 percent considered themselves in good economic health, according to the June Business Barometer® survey by the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB). 

In its news release, CFIB announced that the long-term optimism index rose to 47.3 points in June, representing a rise of 7.1 points. 

“Measured on a scale between 0 and 100, an index below 50 means owners expecting their business’s performance to be weaker over the next three or 12 months outnumber those expecting stronger performance,” CFIB explained in its news release. 

CFIB shared that long-term optimism has steadily gone up over the past three months. However, CFIB stressed that this figure remains below the breakeven of 50 index points. 

“Early signs point to small businesses getting used to tariffs and finding alternatives, but many are not out of the woods just yet,” said Simon Gaudreault, CFIB’s chief economist and vice-president of research, in the news release. 

“While most indicators stayed the same or slightly improved, businesses are still feeling the impacts of the lingering inflation, tariffs, counter-tariffs and overall economic uncertainty,” Gaudreault added. 

According to CFIB, among small firms polled, average price plans stayed the same at 2.9 percent, wage plans remained nearly unchanged at 2.2 percent, and weak consumer demand improved slightly but remained the most significant limitation for 51 percent of survey respondents. 

Tourism data

In its press release, CFIB noted that summer is tourism’s busiest season. CFIB shared that long-term optimism among tourism businesses is at 40.8 index points, among the lowest levels recorded in the last 16 years, similar to those seen during the COVID-19 pandemic. 

“Recent trade tensions, uncertainty and lack of consumer demand are hitting the tourism sector hard,” said Andreea Bourgeois, CFIB director of economics, in the news release. “It’s also concerning that in the past 11 months their hiring plans have been in the red.” 

CFIB said only 14 percent of tourism firms polled have plans to hire in the few months ahead. CFIB added that 57 percent of tourism businesses continued to suffer record-low consumer demand. 

“We urgently need governments to reduce taxes, promote buying local, and ease the costs of doing business if we want to improve Canada’s economic state and help businesses make the most out of this critical time of year,” Bourgeois said in CFIB’s news release

CFIB’s survey covered 412 responses received from June 3 to 9 from a stratified random sample of its members to a controlled-access web survey. 

CFIB, the country’s biggest association of small and medium-sized businesses, has 100,000 members across all industries and regions. CFIB seeks to help business owners succeed by promoting policy changes at all government levels, offering expert advice and tools, and negotiating exclusive savings.