Marking its 10th year, On Target: 2026 Private Equity Outlook offers a sharp, forward-looking view of the factors expected to influence Canadian private equity in the year ahead.
Grounded in a comprehensive review of recent deal activity, McCarthy Tetrault experts — including Matthew Cumming, Mathieu Laflamme, Jonathan See, Patrick M. Shea and Shevaun McGrath — the report distills the themes and market dynamics that matter most for sponsors and other market participants as they position capital for 2026.
Data-driven insight into a shifting market
The 2026 edition begins with a detailed overview of 2025 Canadian private equity activity, arming readers with a by-the-numbers understanding of how deals – and deal sizes – evolved across sectors. From there, the report examines how those trends are likely to shape sponsor priorities in 2026, including renewed interest in Canadian take-privates and cross-border transactions.
Against a backdrop of ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty, the report is designed to provide practical, data-backed insight to help investors navigate an evolving landscape rather than react to it.
Emerging opportunities across key sectors
Private equity investors are increasingly focused on where growth and resilience intersect. The outlook zeroes in on several sectors where that alignment is sharpening:
- Digital infrastructure, and how Canada’s continued buildout is reshaping the opportunity set for investors.
- Defence, including why investment is accelerating and where capital may flow next.
- High-growth technology, with a particular focus on how corporate venture capital and strategic investments are influencing growth-stage dealmaking.
These sector deep dives are paired with analysis of PE secondaries – moving “beyond the boom” to explore the trends and strategies that are expected to define the next phase of activity in 2026.
Navigating regulatory, cross-border and tax complexity
The 10th edition also tackles a range of issues that sit at the intersection of legal risk and commercial strategy. Among the questions explored:
- How investors can build resilience to persistent disruption from U.S. tariffs in Canada–U.S. trade.
- What heightened scrutiny of minority investments means for private equity funds structuring deals and managing regulatory exposure.
- Which recent Canadian tax and regulatory developments should be front of mind for sponsors planning capital deployment in 2026.
For private equity firms, institutional investors and strategic buyers alike, these developments are no longer edge considerations – they are central to deal evaluation, structuring and execution.
Explore the full set of topics, data and practical takeaways: download the complete report.
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Whether engaged with private or public entities, Matthew Cumming’s strategic leadership, pragmatic approach, keen business sense and creativity allow him to get the transaction done. Matthew is the Managing Partner of our New York office, Co-Head of our National Private Equity Group and a Partner in our M&A Group. He is widely regarded for his significant experience over the last two decades in Canadian and cross-border M&A, private equity and infrastructure.
A lawyer known for his professionalism and acute business-sense, Mathieu Laflamme plays a leading role in many of the firm’s most complex private equity matters. Mathieu is Co-Head of our National Private Equity Practice and a partner in the Business Law Group. Mathieu is an accomplished practitioner and trusted advisor for many clients of the firm. His practice focuses on private equity and mergers and acquisitions.
An accomplished dealmaker, Jonathan See helps clients navigate complex transactions across multiple industries. Jonathan is a partner in our Business Law Group in Toronto and Co-head of the firm’s national M&A Group and Private Equity Group. He is one of Canada’s most well-known M&A lawyers acting for many of the leading financial sponsors in the market and multiple strategics on a wide range of domestic and cross-border transactions, particularly in the technology, energy transition, infrastructure, energy and mining, and real estate industries.
Patrick M. Shea, Co-Head of our Private Equity group and a partner in our Business Law Group, has a cross-border transactional practice based in Montreal that is focused on M&A, private equity and corporate and commercial law. He has acted for private equity and corporate clients in Canadian, U.S. and international mergers and acquisitions across a wide range of industries.
Shevaun McGrath is a partner in the firm’s Toronto office and Co-Head of McCarthy Tétrault’s National Private Equity Group. She is also part of the firm’s Senior Leadership Team, as National Leader of Strategic Initiatives, focusing on delivering business solutions and enhancing our approach to evolving client needs. An accomplished dealmaker, Shevaun was named one of the Top 25 Most Influential Lawyers in Canada (2024) for her expertise in private equity, mergers and acquisitions, and capital markets.