Canada’s mining sector, long a bellwether of global resource capital markets, entered 2025 in flux. Commodity price volatility, shifting trade regimes, and regulatory bottlenecks are reshaping how and why deals are made. Miners, financiers, and their advisers are adjusting to new realities where consolidation, creative deal structures, and geopolitical risk hedging dominate the mergers and acquisitions conversation.
According to Steve Bennett, a partner at Stikeman Elliott and co-head of its mining group, expectations were running high heading into this year. “In late 2024, most practitioners were cautiously optimistic,” he says. “But persistent global volatility – particularly around tariffs and shifting trade dynamics – has led to a more muted picture than many expected.” He says mining-related M&A in Canada continues, but transactions are often slower, more complex, and involve more diligence.
“Uncertainty is the enemy of M&A,” Bennett notes. “We’re still seeing transactions, but they’re taking longer. Buyers and sellers are being more methodical.”
That uncertainty is showing up in pricing. Tariffs have heightened commodity price volatility, affecting valuations and the ability to close deals. Earn-outs, joint ventures, and contingent payments are becoming more common as companies seek ways to bridge gaps and share risk. Bennett pointed to Stikeman Elliott’s recent representation of BHP Group Limited in its C$4.5B joint acquisition of Filo Corp. and 50/50 joint venture with Lundin Mining Corporation to progress the Filo del Sol and Josemaria copper projects as an example of this kind of creative dealmaking. Bennett noted that precious metals, particularly gold M&A, have been a standout performer in the first half of 2025, with historically high prices driving both consolidation among the majors and non-core asset sales that create opportunities for juniors and development companies.
Copper, though fundamentally strong, remains hostage to tariff speculation. Bennett was cautious about critical minerals like lithium, nickel, and cobalt: “There remains significant uncertainty about what technologies will dominate five or ten years from now and the impacts on supply and demand.”
Andrew Mihalik of Davies Ward Phillips & Vineberg LLP notes the sharp contrast in the fortunes of mining companies in different commodity sectors. Precious metals are buoyant, with gold up nearly 40 percent year-over-year. “At gold prices surpassing US$3,000 per ounce, assets that wouldn’t have made sense a year ago are now attractive targets,” he explains. That surge has made even second- and third-tier mines viable acquisition candidates, with heightened competition pushing premiums.
Some majors are rolling out “divest-to-invest” strategies in this environment, selling off non-core assets to focus capital on high-potential operations. “These strategic sales free up capital to reinvest in priority assets,” Mihalik says.
But the momentum in gold contrasts sharply with a more languid situation in critical minerals. Flat or declining prices have made bridging buyer and seller expectations challenging, dampening near-term activity. Copper sits in the middle – its long-term fundamentals as an energy transition metal remain solid, but short-term trade and other policy shifts have injected uncertainty and hesitation.
“Copper is both a conventional and strategic metal,” Mihalik says, “but policy whiplash has dampened deal activity across the sector – for now.” He added that, where deals are getting done in this environment, dealmakers have turned to creative structures to protect themselves from short- and medium-term fluctuations in commodity prices and oscillating political currents, such as novel forms of contingent or deferred consideration.
For Andrew Disipio, head of mining at Bennett Jones LLP, however, the story of 2025 is not hesitation but acceleration. “It’s been a very busy year from an M&A perspective, led by strategic consolidations among senior producers and fuelled by long-term macroeconomic and geopolitical trends,” he says.
His firm has acted on some of the largest global mining transactions, including working with Osisko Mining on its $2.2 billion acquisition by Gold Fields and First Majestic's $1.3 billion takeover of Gatos Silver. These are not opportunistic buys, he stresses, but long-term plays. “What we’re seeing is senior producers taking a long view – acquiring assets they can fold into existing operations to sustain future production. Even when paying a premium, it still makes sense.”
Disipio points to the disconnect between high commodity prices and the depressed valuations of juniors as an ongoing catalyst. “That creates opportunity,” he says. Yet he also acknowledges systemic hurdles. Despite its position as the world’s mining capital, Canada is not attracting the level of foreign investment one might expect.
“We’ve heard that Canada is an expensive place to operate. The permitting process is long, capital costs are high, and the regulatory environment is complex,” he says. Coordinating provincial and federal approvals would go a long way to shortening timelines and reducing risk.
Shea Small, co-leader of McCarthy Tétrault’s global metals and mining group, frames the landscape as one of steady interest in dealmaking rather than booms and busts. Joint ventures and spinouts are all part of the modern dealmaker’s toolkit.
Mid-tier gold companies and royalty firms are combining to achieve scale at a time when China continues to acquire aggressively, particularly in Africa and South America. He notes that McCarthy Tétrault acted for Royal Gold on its recent US$3.5 billion acquisition of Sandstorm Gold and Horizon Copper to form a large-scale, industry-leading streaming and royalty company.
“China is on an acquisition spree across a range of assets,” Small notes, though Canadian regulatory barriers make critical mineral acquisitions by Chinese buyers “much more difficult.” That tension, he adds, hasn’t halted deal-making but has shifted its focus.
Copper, he stresses, remains the prize. “It’s the most sought-after commodity in the world by far,” Small says, even as US tariffs complicate investment strategies.
Gold retains its appeal, he notes, and silver is quietly gaining attention. On the other hand, lithium and rare earths remain hostage to pricing volatility, changing attitudes about electrification, and geopolitics. “We spend a lot of time talking about how to get a deal done in the current environment, given all the regulations around the world,” he says. Despite these hurdles, he is bullish: “It’s a great sector to be in and to watch and to see where it goes.”
Against this backdrop, Dentons Canada partners Robin Longe and Leanne Krawchuk offer a perspective grounded in commodity realities and deal structures.
For Longe, co-chair of the Canadian mining group at Dentons, the starting point is always the mineral. “It really depends on the type of mineral that’s being mined,” he explains. Gold and other precious metals remain reliable hedges in uncertain markets. Despite price hiccups, critical minerals benefit from government support tied to clean technology and battery supply chains. But copper, he emphasizes, is unmatched. “It’s such a versatile metal… and it’s a metal that doesn’t have alternatives. The industries that require copper don’t appear to be slowing down.”
That uniqueness, he argues, is driving deals despite global uncertainty. Strong prices give companies confidence to pursue acquisitions, particularly in Canada, which is seen as both resource-rich and geopolitically stable. “If a target has gone through the permitting process and dealt with the risks, that’s a real advantage,” Longe notes. Buying into advanced projects allows acquirers to avoid the uncertainties and delays associated with Canada's permitting and approval process. He suggests that while tariffs and political frictions may cool deal-making elsewhere, mining in Canada retains an exceptional allure.
Krawchuk – Dentons’ national corporate group leader – underscores copper’s centrality to the energy transition. With global inventories at 15-year lows and shortages projected to reach 4.5 million tonnes by 2027, she says the pressure is mounting. “The supply and demand tension is very real for copper,” she says. “For those producing, it’s a fantastic time to be in copper.” That scarcity has already pushed prices above US$11,500 per metric tonne this year, cementing copper’s place as the commodity to watch.
Scale, she argues, has become essential. “We’ve seen numerous deals now, all over the billion-dollar mark,” she said, pointing to Latin America, Africa, and Australia as mega-transaction hotbeds.
Tariffs, she adds, are not temporary roadblocks but part of a new reality. “I don’t think it’s a blip… tariffs appear to be here for the next two and a half, three years.” As a result, miners are turning to joint ventures to spread risk and diversify supply chains, while pension funds and ESG-linked financing provide capital for the right projects.
Like Longe, Krawchuk believes that permitting delays will continue to push companies toward acquisitions rather than greenfield development. “The average timeline to build a new copper mine is 14 years,” she says. “M&A transactions, by contrast, offer faster and lower-risk paths to growth.” The result is a market where “buy rather than build” has become the operating philosophy.
Taken together, these voices paint a picture of mining M&A in 2025 as cautious but far from stagnant. Dealmakers are acting on pragmatism and deploying new structures to manage risk while targeting commodities that offer long-term security in an uncertain world. For gold, that means capitalizing on record prices. For copper, it means racing to secure a scarce, irreplaceable resource. For critical minerals, it means waiting for clarity while positioning for future growth.
What unites them is a recognition that the mining sector remains, at its core, a long-term proposition. Whether through billion-dollar takeovers, carefully structured joint ventures, or strategic asset sales, companies are positioning themselves for a decade in which supply security, rather than quarterly profits, will drive strategy.
As Bennett puts it, “M&A in mining isn’t going away. It’s just evolving. Dealmakers are pragmatic – and if they see long-term value, they’ll find ways to get deals done.”